Key events
Record-high number of diaspora voters take part in Serbian election
Back to Serbia, a record-high number of over 100,000 people, three times as many as in 2023, registered to vote abroad, but a quirk in the way the overseas vote is organised means that some of them had to cast their votes, erm, at night.
Serbia’s electoral commission has tied voting hours to the local time in Serbia, meaning the voters in the US, Canada or Australia needed additional alarm clocks.
13 polling stations fall victim of this rather unusual arrangement, with voters in Chicago – home to a large Serbian community – forced to vote between 1am a 2pm, and in Sydney between 5pm and 6am. Some of them held impromptu parties as they waited because why not.
The move sparked controversy and accusations of making it difficult for likely opposition voters to cast their ballots, as the tight margins this year suggest that every vote may count.
For example, 28 of the 93 overseas polling stations are in neighbouring Bosnia, where Vučić is particularly popular. In contrast, the US has only four stations, and Canada – two, pushing some voters to make trips of thousands of kilometres to cast their votes.
Radev’s former vice-president Iotova leads in Bulgarian presidential election ahead of runoff, exit polls show
By the way, Serbia is not the only country hosting elections today or this weekend.
In the last hour, the polls closed in Bulgaria where voters choose the new president filling the post vacated by populist leader Rumen Radev, who resigned earlier this year to stand in parliamentary elections and take over as prime minister (sort of what Vučić is hoping for).
The presidential race pits the acting president and Radev’s former vice-president Iliana Iotova, who would be Bulgaria’s first (elected) female president, against pro-European former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, with a crowded field of 25 other candidates also on the ballot.
Alpha Research’s exit poll from Bulgaria puts Iotova in the pole position after today’s vote, with 35.3% of the vote, just narrowly ahead of Gyurov at 32.4%.
A second exit poll, conducted by Myara research institute, showed similar numbers, with Iotova at 35.2% and Gyurov at 32.2%.
Assuming these numbers are correct, since none of them got the required 50% of the vote, the pair will advance to a runoff next Sunday.
The vote comes at a critical time given the worsening security situation in Ukraine and just days after a series of drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, including off Bulgaria’s coast.
Unreliable pre-election polls and projections from samples – what are we going to know and when?
Jakub Krupa
Somewhat unusually, we will have to rely on vibes a lot this evening (and over the night, as the vote count progress) as … there isn’t much to go by in terms of reliable data on polling intentions.
Polls are infrequent and show wildly different results, with critics and cynics (you know who you are) saying that they essentially depend on who pays for them or who is the pollster closer to. Whatever the cause, they definitely show all sorts of results.
And so, the final poll done by Ipsos Strategic Marketing (sic!), declared to be paid by Vučić’s list, showed that they are on course for a fairly convincing victory, with 47.4% of the vote, well ahead of the Student List with 40%.
Faktor plus’s polls from September also point to a Vučić win.
But a separate poll by NSPM conducted earlier this month put the Students narrowly – less than 2pp – ahead. To complicate matters further, the Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability’s research from a few months back now gives them an even wider lead, nearing 10pp.
Oh, and to complicate matters further, the polls showed that a not insignificant part of the electorate was still undecided as late as this week.
So, good luck, we are on our own.
We are going to get two projections (note: not exit polls, but based on data from selected polling stations), which are likely to come out around the same time, 9.30/10pm local time (8.30/9pm UK).
That’s the CeSID/Ipsos and CRTA data, based on what they see in their respective samples, as explained in the previous post.
It is not inconceivable that we may end up getting different or outright contradictory suggestions about the result of today’s vote in these projections. Let’s see.
Given we are expecting the result to be fairly close and potentially contested by one or both sides, this all creates perfect conditions for a messy night ahead.
Ultimately, obviously, we will look at the official results, but if they are super close and get contested with recounts, this may take a while.
This will make our work somewhat difficult tonight and will guide us in making cautious calls on the result, but I will try to do my best to guide you through it.
Jakub Krupa
We are essentially getting three different sets of figures tonight: from the electoral commission, from election watchers CeSID and pollster Ipsos, and from another group of election watchers CRTA.
The electoral commission’s data are naturally the most complete, with the latter two groups using their samples – of 750 and 500 polling stations across the country – to report “projected” turnout on that basis.
And to make things easier to follow, they also report at slightly different intervals.
Eh.
We will need to navigate the three throughout the night, so let me explain this a bit further, using the example of pre-election day polling.
Turnout projected to be above 60% with three hours to go
The latest turnout projection by Ipsos/Cesid suggests a turnout of 60.8% by 5pm local time (4pm UK), with three hours still to go until the polling stations close.
That’s more than 13 percentage points higher than in 2023, and would be the highest turnout since mid-2000s.
With three hours to go, it is set to go even higher.
The all-time highest turnout for a Serbian parliamentary election was 71.4%, reported in 1990.
Motivated opposition voters turn out in Belgrade in closely-monitored high-stake election
Ana Milosavljevic
in Belgrade
Tired eyes and smiles adorned the faces of thousands of Serbians who woke up early this morning to cast their vote, breaking all turnout records of early voting.
When asked about their motivation to arrive so early at the polling station, Ana, 42, said with a smile:
“What hasn’t motivated me? There isn’t a single reason I could give that would keep me from showing up at my polling station at 6:20 in the morning.”
Dragana Milić, 60, a member of a polling station committee in the Belgrade municipality of Voždovac, tells us during a cigarette break that she is astounded by the turnout.
“I can’t remember seeing crowds like this at around 8 in the morning in at least the last 15 years.”
She adds that she’s also surprised by “how polite and well-mannered people have been.” In the weeks leading up to the election, she recounts how various media reports have suggested that there would be significant unrest, which Milić says made her frightened.
A volunteer election observer, Marica, 55, from the IT workers grassroots group “IT in Blockade” also woke up early and arrived at the polling station at 5:15am.
“The finger ink sprays weren’t working at two polling stations and voting didn’t begin at those polling stations when it was supposed to. More precisely, the ink could be wiped off with wet wipes. Two new sprays arrived, they were tested, and now voting is proceeding without problems, for the time being,” she says.
In Serbia, voters have a finger marked with a special ink only visible under UV light to prevent them from voting more than once.
This is Marica’s first time monitoring an election, a decision which she made because she does not want to allow any kind of electoral manipulation or fraud in this election.
Regarding turnout, she pauses, smiles and says it’s “never been better.”
Record-high turnout so far by 4pm
Since the early morning, we have seen Serbian voters turning out to vote in unprecedented numbers, with projected turnout already at 56.4% by 4pm, just over 14 percentage points higher than at this point in 2023.
In fact, it’s already just marginally below the 2023 turnout with another four hours to go, so we are likely to crash some records, way above levels seen in previous years.
Experts seem to believe that this should help the opposition and take it to be the evidence of unprecedented mobilisation following their campaign to get out the vote.
Florian Bieber, professor at the University of Graz, told me over the phone from Belgrade, told me that “turnout is really critical in seeing whether they [the students] can potentially succeed tonight.”
But Vučić “is also likely to mobilise voters in different ways than the students do,” he said, so the picture may not be that clear cut.
“There are a couple of unknowns, but overall I would say a higher turnout is overall strongly indicative of a good performance for the students.”
Let’s see.
Look out for allegations of irregularities, fraud, polling station incidents
If the result is close – as we are expecting it may very well be – we are likely to hear allegations of voting irregularities and other attempts to influence or outright rig the election process.
After the 2023 election, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights warned that “though technically well-administered”, the electoral process “created unjust conditions” playing to “the ruling party’s systemic advantages”.
It added that “instances of pressure on public sector employees, misuse of public resources, and voter inducement schemes raised concerns about voters’ ability to make a choice free from undue pressure”.
Previous elections have also seen allegations of various forms of rigging, including vote-buying, voter intimidation and ballot box stuffing, which explains an unprecedented number of monitors on Sunday.
There are just over 15,500 domestic observers – three times the 2023 level. The Student List said on Saturday night that it will have representatives in every polling station across the country.
“From the opening of the polling stations to the last vote counted, we will monitor every step of the electoral process. Every ballot, every record, every vote. Every voice has its guardian.”
The Serbian pro-democracy group the Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA) said in its interim campaign report before the polling day that there were at least 116 incidents of physical violence and verbal threats against voters, with opposition activites subjected to surveillance, interception and police intimidation.
Its latest update today, it said there were reports of pressure on voters in roughly a third of all polling stations, alongside further procedural irregularities.
CRTA also noted that voters were seen photographing their ballot papers in as many as 40% of polling stations, fuelling concerns that some people might be getting asked to show how they voted.
A growing number of security incidents were also reported on social media throughout the afternoon, including physical intimidation and altercations near polling stations.
We will treat unverified reports of these incidents with caution until the facts are fully established and confirmed.
But CRTA used its latest press conference to urge all actors to reduce tensions and allow the electoral process to run its course.
The country’s public media are also firmly in favour of the incumbent, with “representatives of the authorities” taking 94% of talking time in prime time programmes, CRTA’s report said. The opposition is presented negatively “for more than 80% of the time.”
There are also just over 600 monitors from abroad, including the ODIHR, OSCE, Council of Europe and European parliament’s missions. There are also 31 from Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Georgia (side eye).
Acting Serbian president Ana Brnabić accused two MEPs of bias against the ruling party, and questioned their ability to impartially fulfill their duties, according to reports in the Serbian and Austrian media.
EU foreign spokesperson Christian Wigand responded to her comments on Friday:
“Let me be clear that we take any attempts to discredit members of the European Parliament and the election observers very seriously. Election observation missions deployed by well established international organizations, including by members of the European Parliament are playing an important role to ensure the democratic process and accountability are respected.”
The ODIHR and European parliament delegation will present their preliminary conclusions on the election on Monday afternoon.
What does this election mean for Ukraine?
Not necessarily that much in substance, but definitely a change in optics.
Unlike most European leaders – with the exception of ousted Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and his loyal Slovak ally Robert Fico – Vučić has maintained closed ties with Russia, despite the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Last year, he and Fico even controversially joined the Russian Victory Parade in Moscow.
He remains a vocal advocate of “dialogue” with Russia, which he believes to be “a rational, pragmatic” approach to foreign policy. He regularly warns that Europe’s current trajectory makes a third world war “inevitable” and is a stern critic of what he sees as dangerous military buildup across the continent.
He said in a recent interview with a Russian media personality, Ksenia Sobchak:
“It’s like in Chekhov’s plays: if there’s a rifle hanging on the wall in the first act, that rifle will fire in the third act.”
Vučić has repeatedly rejected any suggestion of imposing sanctions on Russia given the close energy, economic, and trade ties between the two nations. In July, he travelled to Kyiv to take part in a summit of leaders from south-eastern Europe and declined to sign its conclusions calling for support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia.
But hosting Zelenskyy in Belgrade in August, Vučić publicly backed Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU – despite Serbia’s own process being very much frozen.
Serbia is also believed to have exported hundreds of millions of dollars worth of ammunition to western buyers, which somehow later found its way to Ukraine – despite Belgrade’s repeated denials of any involvement in the war.
Perhaps reflecting the general consensus on the issue – 80% of Serbs opposed sanctions in 2022, 64% in 2023 – the Student List have also pledged in their manifesto to retain “the traditional partnership” with Russia, and oppose any measures against Moscow.
So no change on the fundamentals.
But … they said in their programme they would “adhere to the international legal position of respecting the territorial integrity” of other countries, including Ukraine, and would “advocate for an end for military conflicts” – whatever that means in practice.
The thorny issue of Serbia’s relationship with Kosovo remains generally highly relevant here. Both Russia and Ukraine do not recognise Kosovo, and Moscow’s strong UN position with its security council veto is particularly helpful in blocking any attempt to challenge the current legal situation.
There is also a practical element: in recent years, Belgrade has also welcomed many Russian entrepreneurs looking for a new base for their headquarters, boosting the local economy.
What does this election mean for Serbia’s relations with the EU?
Serbia has been a candidate country since 2012, with some technical progress made in the last 15 years – but only two “chapters” have been actually closed. The last “milestone” marked on the EU’s website dates to 2021, showing the process has been effectively frozen for the last five years.
The European Commission’s latest rule of law report highlighted several concerns about the country’s justice system, anti-corruption framework, media freedom, and institutional checks and balances. Belgrade also regularly faces criticism over its close ties with Russia and China.
On top of that, in September, the EU strongly condemned the hero’s funeral granted to Ratko Mladić, a Serbian general convicted of orchestrating the worst massacre in Europe since the second world war.
The EU’s enlargement commissioner Marta Kos said “the glorification surrounding [Mladić’s] death is incompatible with the values on which the EU path is built.”
In July, Vučić conceded that Serbia was unlikely to enter the bloc in the coming years.
But if you are expecting the Student List to be unapologetically pro-EU, think again.
Their manifesto on foreign policy includes a very cautiously phrased position on the issue and does not include a clear commitment on the EU membership, primarily stressing the bloc’s importance as Serbia’s “most important economic partner.”
But if you know what to look out for, it does include a pledge to make a technical step in the right direction: the students say they would want Serbia to “achieve IBAR status through significant progress in the area of justice and fundamental rights.”
IBAR – Interim Benchmark Assessment Report – is essentially the European Commission’s finding on whether a country meets accession criteria set out in cluster 1 on fundamentals on democratic institutions, public administration reform, and the rule of law. Montenegro – widely seen as the most advanced candidate country – got there in 2024; Albania – in May 2026.
This sort of vague commitment perhaps makes sense given the List’s much broader focus on deeply reforming the state to get rid of what they see as corruption and systemic injustices. For clerks reading the manifesto in Brussels, it will be enough of a signal to get their hopes up.
Florian Bieber, professor of politics at University of Graz, explained to me as follow:
“On many divisive issues, like EU integration, there’s no consensus in Serbia.
But you don’t need to do much, because Vučić hasn’t done much.
If the Student List doesn’t do much in a year or two on that issue, but makes Serbia more democratic, it actually achieves a lot more for Serbia and EU integration than what Vučić has done in 10 years, because it’s not about the formal negotiations, but it’s about creating good laws and good functional institutions.”
For what it’s worth, the EU was pretty cautious in its language in the build-up to the vote, stressing that it is “closely following” the election, and insisting it needed to be “free, fair, and transparent” and “in line with European and international standards.”
If the result is very close or contested, many will look out for the EU’s reaction.
How did the student movement come about?
The roots of the student movement trace back to the 2024 Novi Sad disaster, where 16 people were killed after an outdoor concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in Serbia’s second largest city.
Inquiries into the causes of the incident revealed slipshod construction along with allegations of fraud and corruption, prompting relentless mass protests demanding transparency and accountability about the incident.
The demonstrations – primarily organised by students – were frequently met with violence, persecution and extensive surveillance by the authorities, with Vučić repeatedly floating unsubstantiated claims of foreign interference.
When Belgrade students blocked a road in a vigil for the victims three weeks after the disaster, they were attacked by a pro-government mob and the protest movement went nationwide.
The student movement eventually morphed into a more political – but not partisan – one.
As Julian Borger noted recently,
“Unable to crush the students by force, division or denigration, Vučić gambled, announcing his resignation as president and calling snap elections, in the apparent hope of catching the students off guard, but they responded by improvising a democratic experiment.
The 250 candidates were mostly nominated by university faculties (there are more than 160 doctorates among them) with a sprinkling of farmers and other professions, and each candidate was subject to approval by plenary sessions of the student protests.”
In a highly unusual development, however, the group has remained decentralised. For starters, in sharp contrast with Péter Magyar’s Tisza in Hungary, it has no single leader.
56-year-old cardiologist Ilija Srdanović appears at the top of the ballot, but it is far from obvious if he would be the first pick as a potential future PM.
Instead, the movement focuses on big collective efforts, with large-scale marches across the country and door to door canvassing, including deep in Vučić’s base of rural voters and among typically sidelined minorities.
It remains to be seen how effective – and disciplined – they would be if they actually succeeded in getting into government. Rewiring the state with all its deeply embedded structural issues after more than a decade of increasingly authoritarian rule would no doubt pose numerous challenges.
As they mount a challenge against Vučić, the students appear to sometimes play on some of the themes of his rule to appeal to his disillusioned voters. Their political manifesto is very carefully constructed to tiptoe around the trickiest issues, particularly in foreign policy, including on Russia and the EU. But eventually they would have to face them head on.
Ivan Đurić of the Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA) notes that the students adopted lots of national symbols – including heavy use of flags and the historically-controversial three-finger sign to now denote their number on the electoral ballot – in their rhetoric, but stresses they gave them “a new meaning.”
“Before student movement, if you saw 100 Serbian flags on a protest, you would [think these are] some extreme nationalists, which is also not normal …
But they have shifted the paradigm in this sense … and after years of nationalistic propaganda, it is impossible to expect some kind of extremely liberal, completely pro-European, anti-Russian, peace-making party will get 40%. Not a chance.
But the people who are on this list, … you can imagine them at a table with any partner in the region.”
Marta Szpala of the Polish Academy of Science and BiEPAG research group goes further and contrasts the Serbian model with disruptive and often violent protests movements in western Europe.
“[The Student List shows] an alternative model: a protest movement that has sustained mobilisation for two years, built a genuine political alternative, and established oversight of its electoral process, standing a chance of bringing about real change.
Serbia may be about to show that achieving change simply requires consistency, perseverance, and the building of broad-based alliances.”
Who are the main actors tonight?
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
Aleksandar Vučić’s SNS anchors the “United Serbia” list. The party relies on control of the public purse, favourable media coverage and strong nationalist backing, but its campaign has been overshadowed by accusations of systemic voter manipulation.
The Student List eschews party hierarchies or a single figurehead, preferring locally respected academics and professionals, and operates through university networks. Its quickfire, humorous campaign has mobilised large numbers of disengaged voters.
That means Serbia’s traditional opposition parties have been largely marginalised, with their collective support falling from 30% to 10-15%. Some parties have switched allegiance to the Student List. Others, such as European Serbia, may not clear the 3% electoral threshold.
Meanwhile, Serbia’s rightwing, nationalist bloc is riven with disagreements and has been further weakened by the unexpected withdrawal of the We the Power of the People party over allegations of Russian influence. Some of the nationalist vote may switch to the SNS.
Who is Aleksandar Vučić?
Serbia’s former president and now prime ministerial candidate (again) Aleksandar Vučić rose to prominence in the 1990s as a radical nationalist, who supported the policies of Serbian expansion and ethnic cleansing led by Slobodan Milošević, who died of a heart attack in detention in The Hague during his trial on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity committed in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo.
He served as Milošević’s information minister throughout the Kosovo conflict. His Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, has been in government since 2012.
He first spent three years as the prime minister from 2014, before switching to the role of the president in 2017. Unable to run for the third term, he resigned from the post in September, and now wants to lead the government again.
As president, Vučić has not emulated his predecessor’s militarism, but he has maintained his nationalist playbook in domestic politics, dismissing the opposition as stooges of unspecified foreign powers.
He maintains close ties with Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China, which regularly gets him criticism from the EU and complicates Serbia’s path to the bloc.
Serbia has regressed in international rankings for press freedom and corruption in recent years, and its process of joining the EU is effectively stalled. More on that shortly.
Vučić is also fairly close with Donald Trump and his associates. He hosted Donald Trump Jr and Jared Kushner in Belgrade, and, as we revealed, personally intervened to advance an allegedly illegal – and definitely very controversial – scheme to hand over a protected site in Belgrade for a Trump tower.
Blog opening: Serbia’s strongman Vučić faces sternest test of his 12-year rule
Jakub Krupa
Dobro veče, or good evening, and welcome to our live coverage of Serbian election night.
The grassroots protest movement, the Student List, is taking on the country’s increasingly authoritarian leader, Aleksandar Vučić, in what is shaping up to be the sternest test of his 12-year grip on power.
The vote is a culmination of two years of student-led protests triggered by the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station canopy in November 2024, which killed 16 people and uncovered massive government and institutional corruption.
The bottom-up leaderless movement, with 250 candidates democratically elected from people with limited political experience but distinguished professional careers, seeks to end Vučić’s rule and rewire the state, with focus on fighting alleged corruption, clientelism and power abuses of the past.
Polls opened at 7am (6am UK time) and close at 8pm (7pm UK time). Until then, we’ll bring you all the key background, explain why it matters for Europe, Ukraine, and you, and give you a flavour of the chatter in the queues outside polling stations from Belgrade to London.
I will also keep one eye on the first round of the presidential election in Bulgaria, so expect an odd update on this or two on this.
Ready? Let’s go. Ajde.
It’s Sunday, 25 October 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good evening.
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