ASX 200 Live Today – Friday, 30th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We’ll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 higher as financials and discretionary gain, Coles slumps

[2:15 pm] That’s a wrap! The ASX 200 is up 33 pts (+0.37%), though off session highs of 1.13%. The index is on track for a 1.5% gain this month, after a 3.1% decline in September.

Discretionary is leading the pack with a sizeable 2.7% bounce, but still down 2.4% for the week, weighed by the long list of downbeat trading update/AGM commentary from the likes of Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi and more. The market remains on the defensive today, with most defensives (outside of staples) trading higher. Materials are down 0.4% but on track for their first weekly gain in nine weeks. Financials also tracking 1.5% higher for the week, ahead of a busy week for bank earnings (Westpac on Monday, NAB on Thursday and Macquarie on Friday).

Coles was down more than 12% after first-quarter revenue came in below analyst estimates, putting it on track for its worst session on record. Consumer Staples fell as much as 4%, but has pared some losses, now down 1.2%.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

Investors are awaiting Tuesday’s RBA decision after the Fed and ECB held rates this week, with the ASX RBA Rate Tracker pricing an 80% chance of a hike to 4.85% as at Thursday’s close.

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Binance halts withdrawals as suspected hack sends Bitcoin to lowest since September

[1:06 pm] Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has suspended all deposits and withdrawals while it investigates a suspected hack that could become the largest crypto heist on record.

• Binance said about US$3bn in assets are currently frozen, and the figure may rise

• Binance said it will cover all losses, and co-founder Changpeng Zhao said he expects user funds to be fully covered

• Blockchain tracker Arkham identified wallets linked to the suspected hacker holding about US$5.9bn, though not all of it was necessarily taken from Binance

• Bitcoin fell below US$77,000, its lowest level since September, with other tokens also selling off

• Tether froze more than US$1.5bn of its stablecoin and Circle froze US$800m in connection with the incident

• The largest known crypto hack to date was at Bybit in February 2025, when attackers took almost US$1.5bn of tokens

Source: Bloomberg

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Bell Potter slaps Speculative rating on Champion Iron as balance sheet stress emerges

[12:49 pm] Champion Iron shares are up 3% today after plunging 17% yesterday, as Bell Potter added a Speculative risk rating and cut its target after the iron ore miner flagged it would have missed covenants on some debt facilities.

• Bell Potter moved to Speculative Hold from Hold and cut its price target 12% to $2.20, 18% above Wednesday’s close

• Champion would have missed covenants on some non-senior debt facilities for the September quarter and has secured temporary relief until the end of March 2027

• Net debt rose to C$1.09bn from C$1.07bn in the June quarter, despite record sales that ran down inventory

• Adjusted EBITDA was C$23m vs C$26m Bell Potter est (9% miss), with a net loss of C$48m vs a forecast C$38m loss

• The net realised price of C$90/t fell below AISC of C$98/t, implying a negative margin, with freight costs up 39% y/y on the Middle East conflict

• Bell Potter now forecasts a FY27 loss of 10c a share, from breakeven previously, and no FY27 dividend

Company page: Champion Iron (CIA)

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Macquarie backs JB Hi-Fi to deliver over Black Friday despite soft start to FY27

[12:40 pm] JB Hi-Fi shares rose 4.3% after Macquarie kept its Outperform rating, arguing that the retailer’s record in key promotional periods outweighs a weak first quarter.

• Macquarie retained Outperform and cut its price target 7% to $87, about 27% above Wednesday’s close

• JB Hi-Fi Australia comparable sales fell 1.4% in 1Q27, though Macquarie noted no further deterioration since July

• The weaker October was put down to shoppers holding off for Black Friday and Christmas, with JB Hi-Fi’s strong promotional track record and supplier support giving scope for a meaningful improvement

• The Good Guys was the standout, with comparable sales down just 0.4% despite heavy pressure on other housing-related retailers

• Supply constraints continue to weigh on sales, with patchy stock availability while competitors benefit from older stock

• FY27–29 EPS forecasts were cut ~5% on lower sales, and the terminal growth rate was lowered to 3.0% from 3.5%

Company page: JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

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Lithium stocks extend slide as Chinese carbonate futures keep falling

[12:19 pm] Lithium stocks have continued to trend lower after Chinese lithium carbonate futures are down 1.3% to 89,840 yuan a tonne in early trade, following a sharp 8.4% tumble on Thursday.

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Nasdaq futures slide 2% as Amazon and Intel deepen AI trade doubts

[12:17 pm] Another round of disappointing megacap earnings has fuelled a rotation out of the AI trade, with investors questioning whether heavy spending can generate returns quickly enough to justify stretched valuations.

• Amazon slumped 7.3% in extended trading on higher spending and slower online growth, while Intel plunged 23% after its revenue forecast missed ests

• Asian chipmakers fell 1.8% on Friday, led by SK Hynix and Advantest, which dropped more than 6% each, after Korea’s Kospi fell 3.7% on Thursday

• More than 400 S&P 500 members advanced on Thursday as money rotated into other sectors, with the S&P 500 down just 0.3% vs a 1.4% drop in the Nasdaq 100

• Floodlines Research’s Anna Wu said the concern isn’t slowing AI demand, but that “higher funding costs and credit risk could eventually force hyperscalers to slow their build-out”

• US 10-year Treasury yields fell three basis points to 4.91%, despite September PCE inflation rising 0.5% (the most in six months) and the fastest GDP growth in a year

• Bitcoin fell 2% to about US$77,200 after a suspected hack of Binance prompted the exchange to freeze more than US$2.5bn in assets

Source: Bloomberg

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Discretionary stocks rebounding after yesterday’s fall

[11:42 am] The S&P/ASX Consumer Discretionary index has snapped a four-day losing streak, up 3.0% but still down 2.1% since last Friday.

Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail are all rebounding after a run of soft trading updates yesterday. Wesfarmers said Bunnings sales growth has moderated, with seasonal and commercial sales weakening in recent weeks. JB Hi-Fi flagged a slowdown in October heading into Black Friday and Christmas, after Australian comparable sales fell 1.4% in the first quarter. Super Retail’s like-for-like sales rose just 0.2%, dragged down by an 11.7% slump at Macpac.

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Healthcare catching a bid in early trade

[11:17 am] The S&P/ASX Healthcare index up 1.2% and has surged 38% since late July, partly because of a great reporting season for CSL and Pro Medicus, but after a torrid time in the first half of the year the sector became too cheap to ignore.

Resmed is bouncing today as it lifted earnings 14% after opening FY27 with solid demand for sleep devices and masks and used proceeds from the MatrixCare sale to step up buybacks.

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Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:40 am] Reece is leading the gainers after sales rose 4.3% as ANZ strength offsets soft US sales. Champion Iron is making a rebound from yesterdays 17% fall after releasing its quarterly that saw its revenue fall 18% year-on-year.

Discretionary stocks like Wesfarmers and Nick Scali are also making gains after selling off on Thursday.

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Top ASX 200 losers

[10:34 am] Catalyst Metals is leading the decliners with a 22% fall after September quarter gold production missed ests by 21%. Coles is losing heavily this morning with an 11% drop after guiding to flat 1H27 Supermarkets earnings, compared to UBS expectations of 7% growth.

Lithium, uranium and rare earths stocks are also falling after Chinese lithium carbonate futures dropped 8.4% to 88,360 yuan a tonne after the ASX closed on Thursday.

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Catalyst Metals plunges 22% on production miss and FY27 guidance downgrade

[10:26 am] Catalyst Metals shares slumped after staff shortages hit September quarter output and the gold miner pushed first production from two new mines into FY28.

• Gold production fell 30% q/q to 22.2koz vs ~28.1koz ests (21% miss), hit by low staffing levels and an extended processing plant shutdown

• AISC was $3,512/oz on gold sold vs ~$3,170/oz ests, or $4,267/oz on a gold produced basis, up from $2,666/oz in the June quarter

• FY27 production guidance of 90–105koz is well below the 130–150koz indicated in September 2025, with AISC guided at $3,600–4,100/oz

• Production from Trident and Old Highway has been deferred to FY28, due to permitting delays at Old Highway and slower development and narrower early ore zones at Trident

• Catalyst said it is not yet clear whether the delay to its ±200koz a year target is material, with the long-term target and 2Moz Reserve unchanged

• Cash and bullion rose $40m to $371m, with total liquidity of $571m including an undrawn $200m facility

Company page: Catalyst Metals (CYL)

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Coles tumbles 11% on flat first-half earnings warning

[10:05 am] Coles shares have tumbled 10.8% to $20.93 after the supermarket giant warned price investment, competitor promotions and higher fuel costs will leave first-half Supermarkets earnings flat.

• 1H27 Supermarkets EBIT expected to be flat at about $1.23bn vs $1.32bn ests (7% miss)

• Supermarkets comparable sales up 2.7% in 1Q27, slowing from 4.6% in 1Q26, with growth moderating further in the first four weeks of 2Q27

• Coles is stepping up price investment, including relaunching its Every Day Price program ahead of Christmas

• Woolworths shares are down 0.3% to $39.38

Company pages: Coles Group (COL), Woolworths Group (WOW)

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DXN halves after losing maiden AI contract

[10:05 am] DXN shares have crashed 47.2% to 14 cents after the modular data centre maker said its first US AI customer intends to cancel an $8.8 million contract.

The customer is unlikely to proceed with a larger follow-on campus opportunity, though it has not disputed about $4.2 million owed for completed work and committed costs.

Company page: DXN (DXN)

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DXN loses maiden AI data centre contract

[9:48 am] Modular data centre maker DXN says its first US AI customer intends to cancel an $8.8 million high-performance computing (HPC) contract after a strategic shift, though it expects to be paid for work already done.

• 1Q27 revenue up about 380% to $3.4m, as previously deferred modular projects moved through manufacturing and delivery

• The customer has not disputed about $4.2m for completed work and committed costs, or 48% of contract value, but is unlikely to proceed with a larger follow-on campus

• Backlog of about $30.8m, up from $23.5m at 30 June after adjusting for the cancellation, including a second AI HPC contract worth $12.2m due for delivery in early 2027

• Cash of $11.1m at 28 October, recovering from $6.4m at quarter end after receiving delayed customer payments

• 1H27 revenue expected to reach $11m, up 307% on 1H26, aided by a temporary Seven Hills manufacturing facility starting production in 2Q27

The $8.8 million contract drove a ~590% one-day move for DXN shares on 3 June. The stock rallied a further ~280% by 30 September following a series of further contract wins. The cancellation will likely take a massive hit on the share price today, and make you re-think recent contract wins as well.

Company page: DXN (DXN)

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Rio Tinto halts Oyu Tolgoi underground mining after seismic event

[9:47 am] Rio Tinto has paused underground operations at its Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia after seismic activity along a rock fault zone caused ground vibration.

• Three employees were injured, with no fatalities reported

• Oyu Tolgoi is one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits and central to Rio’s copper growth strategy

• Rio owns 66% of the project, with the Mongolian government holding the remaining 34%

• Delays at the Ganqimaodu border crossing between China and Mongolia have also cut truck availability for shipping copper concentrate from the mine

Source: Reuters

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Endeavour flags softer spending after strong July

[9:46 am] Endeavour Group says consumer spending has moderated since a very strong July, with cost-of-living pressures and higher fuel prices weighing on its Hotels business.

• Total group sales up 2.8% to $3.18bn for the 14 weeks to 4 October

• Retail sales up 3.0% to $2.58bn, driven by transaction growth at Dan Murphy’s, though promotional intensity remains elevated

• Hotels sales up 1.9% to $603m, with gaming revenue flat on 1Q26

• Retail began cycling higher sales at the end of the quarter, following last year’s shelf price cuts and an uplift in industry-wide promotions

• CEO Jayne Hrdlicka said “we expect customers to continue to manage their spending carefully and prioritise value for money in their purchasing behaviour”

Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

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Labor to ban AI data centres in suburban areas and rework copyright plan

[9:30 am] The federal government plans to stop AI data centres being built near homes and is reworking its copyright proposal to give creators more bargaining power over AI training deals, according to the AFR.

• Data centres will be banned near homes and recreational facilities, following community backlash in inner Sydney and Melbourne

• Next-generation AI data centres will have to move to renewable energy or risk having their power cut off

• Goodman Group scrapped a $1.2bn data centre in Lane Cove after local opposition, and NextDC last week postponed its West Footscray expansion

• The copyright plan has moved away from letting AI firms scrape content freely, towards a model where rights holders negotiate deals directly and smaller creators also get paid

• AI companies may be forced to disclose what content they use to train models

• Draft laws are due for public consultation before the end of the year

Source: AFR

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CAR Group reaffirms FY27 outlook as CEO pushes back on AI disruption fears

[9:27 am] CAR Group says trading nearly four months into FY27 supports its August outlook, and CEO William Elliott used the AGM to argue that AI is an opportunity rather than a threat to its marketplaces.

• The FY27 outlook from August was reaffirmed, with the company saying it is very pleased with trading so far

• Elliott acknowledged the share price has fallen over the past year, largely on investor concern about what AI means for online marketplaces

• He argued AI models are unlikely to bypass CAR Group, citing a direct audience of more than 52 million monthly users, live dealer inventory and two decades of proprietary sales and pricing data

• CAR Group is building its own AI agent into its sites and apps, while integrating with platforms such as ChatGPT on terms it sets

• 11.7% of proxies voted against the CEO’s FY27–29 long-term incentive grant, while the remuneration report received 95.1% support

Company page: CAR Group (CAR)

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Emerald output falls 25% on lower grades, holds FY27 guidance

[9:27 am] Emerald Resources’ Okvau mine in Cambodia had a weaker September quarter as it processed lower-grade ore, but the gold miner kept its full-year guidance unchanged.

• Gold production fell 25% q/q to 20.3koz as head grade dropped to 1.23g/t from 1.75g/t

• AISC rose 48% q/q to US$1,210/oz

• Gold sales were 23.8koz at an average US$4,255/oz, and operating cash flow fell 12% to $112.4m

• FY27 guidance was held at 100–115koz at AISC of US$980–1,080/oz

• Cash, bullion and listed investments totalled $540.9m, and Emerald signed a mandate with Sprott and Macquarie for a US$200m acquisition facility, scalable to US$400m

• The Dingo Range maiden ore reserve, DFS and development timeline are due in the near term, with the mining fleet mobilising in December

Company page: Emerald Resources (EMR)

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Coles’ flat first-half guidance lands about 7% below UBS forecast

[9:16 am] Coles’ expectation of flat first-half supermarket earnings sits well short of where UBS had pencilled in growth.

• 1H27 Supermarkets EBIT is now expected to be flat on 1H26’s $1.23bn, about 7% below UBS’s $1.32bn forecast

• UBS had forecast 1H27 Supermarkets sales growth of 4.7%, ahead of the 3.6% Coles delivered in 1Q27

• Coles cited investment in lower prices, competitor promotions and higher fuel costs

Company page: Coles Group (COL)

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Civmec revenue jumps 70% as major resources projects ramp up

[9:05 am] Civmec made a strong start to FY27 as work ramped up on major resources and critical minerals projects, including BHP’s Port Hedland expansion and Iluka’s Eneabba refinery.

• Revenue rose 70% to $324m in the September quarter (1Q27), driven by its Construction division

• EBITDA was $35.1m, a 10.8% margin

• Net profit rose 75% to $18.4m

• The order book stands at ~$1.4bn, up 22% on $1.15bn a year earlier

• Civmec won the construction contract for Alcoa’s Wagerup gallium plant in WA, the largest of more than $220m in awards and extensions announced on 5 October

• The Commonwealth accepted the baseline schedule for the rest of the Arafura-class offshore patrol vessel program through to 2029

Company page: Civmec (CVL)

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Count’s underlying earnings jump 67% as funds under management hit record

[9:00 am] Count started FY27 with strong earnings growth from its accounting partnerships and actuarial consulting, and is buying a stake in Brisbane accounting and advice firm Apiary.

• Revenue rose 23.2% to $52.1m in the September quarter (1Q27)

• Underlying EBITA rose 66.6% to $12.7m, lifting the margin to 24.5% from 18.1%

• Growth came from carry-over work in the Equity Partnership segment and strong actuarial consulting revenue

• Funds under management hit a record $6.7bn, up 31.3% y/y, including the Oracle Group acquisition

• Targeted annual cost synergies from Oracle (now Count Wealth) were raised to $1.25m, to be realised within 24 months

• Count is buying a 30% stake in Apiary, which had FY26 revenue of $3.5m, with completion expected on 1 December

Company page: Count (CUP)

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Coles flags flat first-half supermarket earnings as competition and fuel costs bite

[8:57 am] Coles has tempered its first-half earnings outlook as cost-of-living pressures and heavy discounting from rivals slow supermarket sales growth.

• Group sales rose 2.2% to $11.2bn in the September quarter (1Q27)

• Supermarkets sales rose 3.6% to $10.3bn, with comparable sales growth slowing to 2.7% from 4.6% a year earlier

• eCommerce sales rose 22.9% to $1.6bn, lifting online penetration to 15.7% from 13.3%

• Liquor sales fell 1.3% to $831m, an improvement on the 2.5% decline in 4Q26

• Supermarkets sales growth has moderated in the first four weeks of 2Q27, while Liquor’s decline is tracking in line with 1Q27

• 1H27 Supermarkets EBIT is now expected to be flat on the prior year, citing investment in lower prices, competitor promotions and higher fuel costs

Company page: Coles Group (COL)

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Capstone Copper posts record earnings but flags production at low end of guidance

[8:57 am] Capstone Copper booked record September quarter earnings on higher copper prices, while outages and rising input costs have pushed full-year output and costs to the weak end of guidance.

• Revenue rose 19% to US$712m, on a realised copper price of US$6.61/lb vs US$4.49/lb a year earlier

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 44% to a record US$358m, its eighth straight record quarter

• Adjusted net profit rose 90% to US$93.8m, while statutory net profit fell 60% to US$98.5m because the prior year included a US$209.5m impairment reversal

• Copper production fell 18% to 45,218t, and C1 cash costs rose 22% to US$2.95/lb on Pinto Valley outages and higher diesel and sulphuric acid prices

• 2026 production is tracking at the low end of 200–230kt guidance, costs at the high end of US$2.45–2.75/lb, and capex guidance was raised US$40m to US$830m

• Net debt fell to US$564m from US$780m at December

Company page: Capstone Copper (CSC)

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Helia’s nine-month profit falls 32% as housing slowdown starts to lift claims

[8:50 am] A slowing housing market pushed mortgage arrears and claims higher at Helia in the September quarter, but the mortgage insurer kept its full-year guidance unchanged.

• YTD gross written premium fell 53% to $82.5m, hit by the loss of the CBA contract, the expanded 5% Deposit Scheme and slower home lending

• YTD insurance revenue fell 8% to $253.4m

• YTD net profit fell 32% to $136.5m, including $36.5m in 3Q26

• Claims were $5.1m in 3Q26 as house prices fell and the 90-day delinquency rate rose 4bps to 0.83%

• The capital coverage ratio rose to 2.01x from 1.85x a year earlier, well above the 1.4–1.6x target range

• FY26 insurance revenue guidance was held at $330–360m, with claims still expected to stay well below through-the-cycle levels

Company page: Helia Group (HLI)

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ResMed lifts earnings 14% on sleep demand, holds FY27 guidance

[8:49 am] ResMed opened FY27 with solid demand for sleep devices and masks and used proceeds from the MatrixCare sale to step up buybacks.

• Revenue rose 6% to US$1.41bn in the September quarter (1Q27), up 7% in core constant currency

• Sleep revenue rose 10%, with devices up 9%, masks up 10% and Rest of World sleep up 12%

• Non-GAAP gross margin rose 50bps to 62.5%

• Non-GAAP EPS rose 14% to US$2.91, while GAAP EPS rose 23% to US$2.92, helped by the gain on the MatrixCare sale

• More than US$1bn was returned to shareholders, including US$936m of buybacks, and a quarterly dividend of US$0.66 per share (US$0.066 per CDI) was declared

• FY27 guidance was unchanged, with revenue of US$5.75–5.85bn, core constant currency growth of 5–7% and non-GAAP EPS of US$12.00–12.25

Company page: ResMed (RMD)

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Vulcan’s first re-injection well beats flow assumptions as Lionheart build stays on track

[8:46 am] Vulcan Energy says its Lionheart lithium and geothermal project in Germany remains on schedule and on budget, with its latest well test supporting the project’s base case.

• Its first matrix re-injection well tested at about 64 litres per second, 60% above the ~40 litres per second assumed in its field development plan

• Lionheart construction is on schedule and on budget, with first production targeted for 2028

• First commercial-scale production of its VULSORB lithium extraction material began, needed to fill the extraction columns before commissioning

• €53.7m was received from strategic equity partners and €10.7m from German government grants, the first drawdowns from the €2.2bn Lionheart funding package

• Development spending was €88.8m in the September quarter, taking the YTD total to €256.8m

• Cash and term deposits totalled €209.4m at 30 September, down from €273.9m at 30 June, with the first debt drawdown expected in Q1 2027

Company page: Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

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Sandisk NAND deal pipeline exceeds supply to end of decade

[8:35 am] Flash memory maker Sandisk says demand for long-term NAND supply agreements now outstrips what it can produce through to 2030, with AI data centres driving the bulk of bit growth.

• On supply agreements: About half of FY27 bits and two-thirds of FY28 bits are already committed, with more deals expected

• On customer quality: 95% of long-term agreements are with investment-grade companies that generated about $130bn in operating cash flow

• On data centre demand: Data centres are expected to account for more than 55% of NAND bit demand in 2027, up from 50% today

• On growth: Data centre bit demand is expected to grow about 40% next year, after more than doubling in 2026

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Intel sees server CPU shortage running into 2028

[8:34 am] Intel says server CPU demand will outrun industry supply into 2028, even as an accelerating PC downturn weighs on its client business.

• On server CPU supply: “We expect the industry to remain supply constrained throughout 2027 and into 2028”

• On server CPU growth: “We now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027”

• On the server CPU market: It could grow as much as five-fold over the next five years, from about $40bn to more than $200bn, driven largely by agentic AI workloads

• On PCs: “The pace of the PC correction has accelerated over the last two months… For 2027, we’re planning for the PC unit TAM to decline roughly 10%”

• On Nova Lake: “Nova Lake, our first Intel 18A-P client product, is tracking ahead of schedule”

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Amazon flags bigger capex in 2027 as AI demand soaks up capacity

[8:33 am] Amazon says customers are consuming new AWS capacity almost as quickly as it can be installed, with capital spending set to climb again in 2027.

• On capex: Amazon still expects about $220bn in cash capex for 2026, with spending to increase meaningfully in 2027

• On AWS returns: “…have even more conviction than we already had that the investment we’re making in AWS will yield a much larger revenue and free cash flow generating business than we would have imagined a couple years ago”

• On Bedrock: Token volume grew nearly 17x year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing multibillion-dollar service in AWS history

• On advertising: Ad revenue rose 12% to $19.64bn vs $20.82bn ests (6% miss), with an earlier Prime Day pulling spend into 2Q26

• On AI shopping agents: “The answer is no… Few customers are doing much shopping this way yet, as the experience is still not great, nor more convenient than coming to a retailer directly”

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Marvell sinks 13% on report it’s nearing mega deal for Lumentum

[8:32 am] Marvell is in advanced talks to buy laser maker Lumentum, according to Bloomberg, in a move to secure optical technology and capacity for the AI buildout.

• Marvell fell 13.2% on the report, while Lumentum closed up 0.6% after rising as much as 5% intraday

• A deal could be announced as soon as next week

• Lumentum is valued at about $83bn, against Marvell’s roughly $221bn

• Lumentum makes lasers and optical components used to speed up connections between AI systems, a key bottleneck in data centre buildouts

• Both stocks have rallied hard this year, with Marvell up more than 190% YTD and Lumentum up 140%

Source: YahooFinance

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Shell profit nearly doubles on record refining margins, lifts buyback

[8:31 am] Shell’s September quarter profit was its strongest since 2022 as the Iran war disrupted global energy supplies and lifted fuel and gas prices.

• Adjusted earnings rose 99% y/y to US$10.81bn, vs US$10.33bn ests (4.6% beat)

• Integrated gas earnings were US$3.04bn vs US$2.93bn ests (3.8% beat)

• Upstream earnings were US$3.19bn vs US$3.10bn ests (2.9% beat)

• Refining margins hit a record US$42 a barrel, up from US$24 in the June quarter and US$11.6 a year earlier

• The quarterly buyback was lifted to US$5bn from US$3bn

Source: Reuters

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Trump delays robotics and machinery tariffs ahead of midterms

[8:29 am] President Trump has held off on tariffs for robotics and industrial machinery imports, opting for negotiations with trading partners instead.

• A Commerce Department probe found the imports threaten US national security, but Trump stopped short of imposing tariffs

• Officials have 180 days to negotiate with trading partners and report back, leaving the door open to later tariffs

• The probe covered CNC machining centres, industrial robots, stamping presses and laser and water cutting machinery

• Trump delayed tariffs on wind turbines earlier this month on similar terms

• The delays push any new tariffs past next week’s midterm elections, where cost of living is the dominant issue

Source: Bloomberg

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ECB President Lagarde to step down early

[8:29 am] Christine Lagarde will leave the European Central Bank about eight months before her term ends, as eurozone inflation runs at a three-year high.

• Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027, with her term originally due to end in late October 2027

• Eurozone leaders will now choose a successor, and the timing lets French President Macron influence the pick before April’s French presidential election

• Eurozone inflation hit 3.8% in September, nearly double the ECB’s 2% target, driven by the Iran war

• The ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday, with Lagarde playing down the risk that inflation spreads beyond energy

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Microsoft draws over $100bn in orders for first US bond sale since 2017

[8:26 am] Microsoft became the latest tech giant to tap debt markets to fund its AI buildout, drawing blowout demand for its first US investment-grade bond in more than nine years.

• Microsoft is raising about $25bn, its first US investment-grade bond sale since 2017

• Orders topped $100bn, more than four times the size of the offer

• The sale has up to 10 tranches with maturities of 2 to 40 years, managed by Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and UBS

• CFO Amy Hood flagged the move on Wednesday’s earnings call, saying Microsoft would seek extra funding when it was attractive to preserve cash flow and financial flexibility

• Microsoft expects positive free cash flow through FY27 (to June 2027), unlike hyperscaler peers that are now burning cash

• Alphabet burned $9.1bn in the September quarter, and Meta reported its first cash burn in more than a decade last week

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US economy grows at fastest pace in a year as inflation heats up

[8:26 am] US growth beat expectations in the September quarter on the back of AI investment, but inflation is accelerating and the White House is flagging possible Fed rate rises.

• GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the September quarter vs 3.1% ests, up from 2.2% in the June quarter

• Business investment surged 12.7%, with the AI buildout the main driver

• Consumer spending rose 3.8%, matching the June quarter’s pace

• Net exports were a drag, as exports fell and AI-related imports rose

• The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September, the largest monthly gain in six months

• NEC Director Kevin Hassett said the Fed would probably act if October inflation comes in “really high”

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Alphabet suffers record fall as search miss revives AI disruption fears

[8:25 am] Alphabet’s September quarter result revived fears that AI tools are eating into Google Search, overshadowing booming demand for its cloud services.

• Shares fell 12.6%, Alphabet’s largest one-day fall on record, erasing about $500bn in market value

• Search revenue rose 12% y/y to ~$63bn, missing ests for a second straight quarter

• Search growth has slowed from 19% in Q1 and 17% in Q2, despite query growth at a five-year high, with management blaming FX and warning the currency hit will grow in Q4

• Cloud revenue more than doubled to ~$31bn, with a backlog of ~$560bn, a little over half of which is expected to be recognised within 24 months

• Free cash flow was -$9.1bn, three times the deficit ests had expected, after -$5.9bn in Q2

• 2026 capex guidance was held at $195–205bn (midpoint $200bn), with spending to rise significantly in 2027

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Good morning!

[8:13 am] ASX 200 futures are up 32 pts (+0.35%). Here’s what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks mixed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s three-day winning streak ending after a tech sell-off led by Alphabet’s 12.3% drop, while health care and small caps outperformed in a broad defensive rotation

  • S&P 500 (-0.30%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.20%)

  • Nasdaq (-1.38%), Dow (-0.25%), Russell 2000 (+1.01%)

• Alphabet’s record one-day market value wipeout, driven by a search miss and negative free cash flow, revived doubts over AI spending returns ahead of Amazon’s result

• Treasuries firmed and December Fed hike bets fell to 76% after in-line PCE inflation and stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth, as the ECB held rates and Lagarde set an early exit