In this week’s Power Rankings, two gubernatorial races get more competitive as the final two weeks of campaigning begin.
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In Florida, Hispanic voters will play an outsized role, and polls suggest that a large chunk of them have shifted away from the GOP. In last week’s national Fox survey, 31% of Hispanic voters said they preferred the Republican candidate over the Democrat. That’s down 12 points from their support for Trump in 2024.
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The Republican candidate, Rep. Byron Donalds, will be pleased to have the endorsement of DeSantis. He remains popular in the state. Donalds still has the edge against Democrat and former Rep. David Jolly, who is hoping former President Bill Clinton can shore up his support when they appear together for the first time today.
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Still, this race is no sure thing for the GOP. Florida moves from Likely R to Lean R.
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In Nebraska, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen is looking for a second term in office. He cruised to victory the first time with a 23-point win, but with both suburban and rural voters wavering on Trump this cycle, this could be a tougher battle.
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Three other factors are playing a role.
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First, the presence of Dan Osborn, one of the four notable independents on the ballot in Senate races this year, could boost Democratic turnout for challenger Lynne Walz in a governor’s race that would otherwise attract less attention.
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There’s Pillen himself, who has faced some local pushback over a 5% budget cut and hiring freeze within state government.
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Finally, the ballot, which will feature third-party challenger Brett Lindstrom, a former state lawmaker who lost to Pillen in a Republican primary four years prior. He’ll appear on the ballot as an “America First” candidate. The party was founded in July.
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